Category: Article

Crude Oil Testing Appetite of Long Term Bulls

After falling more than 11% in the first 3 weeks of March, crude oil finds itself re-testing a rising multi-month trendline extending back 12 months to April of 2016.

Image Crude - Crude Oil Testing Appetite of Long Term Bulls - The Trade Risk

Short term momentum remains lower in the black liquid, and therefore caution is advised, but be aware longer term dip buyers could start picking away around this 47 area.

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Bullish Weekly Developments In Small Cap Stocks

After 14 weeks of moving sideways, the small cap index, Russell 2000 $IWM is back re-testing the December 2016 multi-month highs.

Image of IWM - Bullish Weekly Developments in Small Cap Stocks - The Trade Risk

We briefly broke above this 138 area in late February, but ultimately couldn’t maintain higher prices for very long and traded back down towards the middle of the range.

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Current Stock Market Technicals Into the Fed

All eyes are on the Fed tomorrow which has the potential to be a market moving catalyst. I have no helpful insights into what remarks to look for from the release, but I can outline the current stock market technicals to help you create a plan for the reaction.

  • The $SPY ETF is trading around its largest pullback YTD which is a laughable 3 SPY points off highs.
  • The VIX is off YTD lows, trading north of 12 and was up about 10% on the day earlier in the session.

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Energy Stocks Test 10 Month Rising Trendline

As crude oil tumbles lower -4% on the day, the SPDR energy sector ETF $XLE is also getting hit hard, down -2% to the round 70 price tag.  Energy XLE ETF - Energy Stocks Test 10 Month Rising Trendline

This area will be key to pay attention to as it coincides with a 10 month rising weekly trend-line that has supported price since March of 2016.

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Russell 2000 Battle Continues to new 4 Week Lows

Over the last month of trading, our analysis of the major averages largely focused on small cap stocks and Russell 2000 index ($IWM) due to its extended sideways consolidation pattern.

We broke out above 10 week resistance in early February but we had a difficult time finding follow through from that break out.

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Defensive Sectors Emerge Top Performers in February

On the last day of the month I always stick my head up from the day to day noisy swing trading weeds and look through monthly charts of all of the major markets and individual sectors to gain some high level perspective.

This month, we’ve seen three of the four top sector SPDR components fall into defensive categories: health care, staples, and utilities.

Monthly charts to follow.

Staples $XLP broke out from a 6 month pullback into the rising 20 period EMA and are now quickly back to new closing monthly highs.

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Cover Image - Scanning for Swing Trade Setups in TC2000

Scanning for Swing Trade Setups in TC2000

Scanning for swing trade setups in TC2000 is a guide to help you find the stocks that you care about for your watch-list.

It covers the basics of creating new scans, selecting and filtering your stock universe, examples of a few of my favorite scans, as well as some general tips that I’ve learned over the years.

I’ve recorded a supplementary video below, covering more of the setup process

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Nearing Inflection Points

Equity markets ripped to new time highs today across all of the major averages, but that’s no longer impressive, that’s an every day thing.

It was commodities that were interesting today, specifically crude oil and natural gas nearing inflection points.

We’ll look at crude oil first, and we can see on the chart below that bulls are trying to break us out above multi-month $54 resistance level.

Chart 1 - The Trade Risk Evan Medeiros Swing Trade Alerts

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Put Call Ratio Spike Lower Suggests Excessive Bullishness

Markets closed strongly in the green today after a mostly red open and early sluggish action. Even the slightest weakness continues to get bid up.

We’ve closed higher 5 days in a row in the S&P500 and it’s clear on nearly any market indicator that we are in overbought territory.

Today, we have our newest confirmation that sentiment is near-term excessively bullish, based on the closing total put/call ratio seen below.

Image of CPC Ratio - The Trade Risk Evan Medeiros Swing Trade Alerts

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