2013 summer solstice meltdown
$SPY hindsight analysis makes this trading business look so easy. A waterfall lower caused by the fed, raising rates, the USD, call it what you want, it doesn’t matter. The facts are this. This week created a lot of technical damage as the S&P was down nearly 5% in 2ish days (dont forget .83 cents ex-dividend so the downside LOOKS worse then reality). The elastic has been stretched and we’re “likely” to breath/retrace/sideways here a bit. I believe for at least the start of this week we should see the market catch its breath and digest the shockwave that just hit it. IF we do see some upside early next week i wouldn’t get too excited, look at the last few candles here, V shape bottoms are rare, you want to see healthy bases develop before taking longs and we’re days if not weeks away from a developed base at these levels. call it 157 half to 161 half is the range I am looking at this coming week.
$AAPL I dropped a chart wednesday after the bell pointing out Apple was in trouble short term after breaching that 430 level. We did see a nice 9 dollar bounce off the overly watched 420 level and when everyone is watching a certain level to hold its rare that it will. Similar to my note on the SPY, we are stretched here to the downside. Does not mean we cannot push lower, but odds start to favor retracement like action. Fridays lows, 418-420ish, and then the breakdown level up near 430 are the resistance levels to watch in the short term. I am holding some July 410 calls I picked up around 409 yesterday and I could be out of those as soon as Monday if I do not like what I see. Stay objective. This is a bearish chart.
$GOOG not even the leaders were immune to this weeks sell off. We see Google catching some support at the lower end of this developing channel around 875-880. This has been and still is one of the leaders this year so it can offer some nice clues as to how nasty this summer trading can get if it really starts breaking down. It’s not as stretched to the downside as most other stocks so it is showing relative strength. Bulls do not want to see it lose Fridays lows. I am holding small position of common long into the weekend at 880.
$NFLX sold off in about as straight of a line as you can get. That was a dangerous gap down on thursday given the amount of immediate volume put in between 232-236. Once it gapped below that support it left alot of bulls underwater and once 226 broke there was no holding it up. It entered the gap and sank 10 points to fill it right on the money and then immediately reversed it higher. 214 to 225 is the range I will be watching for the week, clear breakdown of fridays lows and 205 here we come.
$FB finally showing some relative strength as this stock finished the week in the green. A little sloppy at the upper portion of this range but you can see it fought strong to hold on nearly green in fridays session. 24.70 is the level to watch on the upside and then a close above 25 should set up a nice measured move higher. There’s a sloppyish inverted head and shoulders on the daily chart with 24.7 being the neckline. About time facebook.
$AMZN i always think of Amazon as the rogue stock that always seems to elude me while its making its move. Bulls shouldn’t forget about this stock as it bases out nicely just below all time highs. Very healthy action still holding the recent breakout from 270 and you really want to see that hold otherwise amazon is just going to need more time before really challenging its all time highs. I almost took some home at the close but I think I was too frustrated that I missed my entry by 15 cents earlier at 270 and never got back in.
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