Author: Evan

clear sailing to close out the summer

$SPY so in last week’s recap, I suggested waiting for breakout confirmation of the 194.40 – 196.60 range before adopting any directional bias one way or the other. Luckily for us it didn’t take more than Monday morning’s action which started with a gap up right into 196.60 resistance which soon was taken out as the day progressed. For the rest of the week the market sailed higher, taking out the previous all time highs and setting a new closing high record. The bulls really have mastered the art of the v-shaped rally. After spending the majority of the day on Friday digesting the recent run up, the market is finally showing some signs of being human and needing a pause in trend. This 199 level could serve as short term support; meanwhile, intermediate support is closer to 198. With a strong uptrend, broken resistance levels and new all time highs, there is a lot to like in the bull camp right now. Going into next week we’ll want to keep an eye on our support levels here as we wait for the market to fuel for continued trending action. I’d put my bullishness on hold if there’s a break below 198; otherwise, it’s all systems go looking ahead. The market proved itself this week and you’ve got to respect that, until given a reason otherwise.

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mastering the v shaped rally

$SPY we got that upside follow through this week as the bulls managed to clear 194.40 resistance and fill the open breakdown gap we had back on 7/31. And we did it in the very similar v-shaped rally fashion that we’ve seen time and time again over the past near two years now. The short term trend is now up, with higher highs and higher lows, and 194.40 will serve as a very good line in the sand going into next week as a bullish to bearish light-switch. Friday’s action is worth pointing out that we had a pretty strong reaction shortly after filling the open gap. Of course there was macro news breaking at the same time, but we don’t care about the reason, only the price action. So heading into next week this 194.40 – 196.60 would be a reasonable range to chop around in before resolving a direction. Are we going to just ramp back up to new all time highs, or is this currently impressive v-shaped rally only going to fall short and lead to a lower high in the larger intermediate trend? I’ll be waiting for this near term range to resolve to give me my directional bias.

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conflicting signals keep market at ease

$SPY in last weeks recap we pointed out the markets bearish change in character after a breakdown from a 2-month long rising channel. Despite the bearish behavior we also made note of the extreme oversold conditions and suggested the best course of action was to stay nimble. After the close this Friday we can see the market behaved in that very conflicted manner, that is by probing the downside beyond last weeks lows but ultimately closing within 30 cents of where it opened Monday. In the near term we have carved out this falling wedge that the bulls made a run against on Friday. They are in the process of trying to breakout of it and Monday could offer some additional momentum to the upside if we can follow through above Friday’s highs. While the buyers definitely stepped up on Friday and closed the week on the highs, we still aren’t out of the woods yet.

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