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The Complete Trade Risk Blog Roll

Publishing market analysis and trade ideas since 2012.

what a wedge means for the market

Weekly market review for 9-8-13 in $SPY $AAPL $GOOG $NFLX $FB $AMZN $TSLA

september poised to start with a bang

$SPY saw a breakdown late in the day on Monday  from the rising channel we formed the prior week and then follow through selling on tuesday via a nice gap and sink lower. For the rest of the week we slugged it out within a sideways trading range between 163.25 to 165.  There are now 2 unfilled open gaps to the downside that the bears have been able to protect the past 2 weeks. The stage is set, the levels have been established, now it seems we are just a few headlines away from a capitulatory dropkick lower or a bull we-wont-take-anymore squeeze higher. As I write this sunday night the futures are indicating a good sized gap higher into the top end of this range, but be aware we are over 24 hours away from the US market open given the labor day holiday on Monday.  Lets see if the futures can remain positive into Tuesday morning and if so we may be in store for an upside breakout above 165 and into the first of two gaps. If this is faded into Tuesday then watch 163.25 to the downside. (more…)

trading the last day of august


Pre-market analysis heading into the last day of the month on the $SPY $AAPL $GOOG $NFLX $FB $AMZN $TSLA

leaders emerge, summer woes over?


Weekly market review in $SPY $AAPL $GOOG $NFLX $FB $AMZN $TSLA

VIDEO: pre-market analysis 8/20

pre market analysis for the day of tuesday august 20th for the $SPY $AAPL $GOOG $NFLX $FB $AMZN $TSLA

24 day range breakdown & site updates

A programming note before the weekly round up. If you take a look at the navigation bar above you will notice a few new pages have been added to the site. You can now track my week to week trading performance on a closing basis. I plan to begin including more details over time, such as to the top winners and losers for that specific week and some win to loss ratios and percentage statistics to follow.  Also new is the videos page, which will begin to populate with recorded live trading sessions and trade ideas over the weeks to come. In order to access the videos page you will just need to create a username and password to obtain a site membership (completely free). This brings me to the memberships page. Here you can sign up for the free site account and also subscribe to two paid memberships I am currently offering, real time trade alerts and 1 on 1 mentoring. My last note before we get into the charts. I will not bombard anyone with sales pitches or discounts to sign up for any paid memberships. Create a free login, watch my videos, track my performance, if you like what you see and want to discuss anything then send me an e-mail otherwise just sign up. (more…)

buy, sell, or stay cautious ?

$SPY So in last weeks post, the end might be near but it aint until it is  I talked about SPY 170 being the near term level to watch if we were to see momentum continue to build higher for the bulls. We saw that level crack on Tuesday morning, follow through on wednesday and then stabilization for the rest of the week. It's clear we have now carved out a short term range between 168.75 and 170 as swing traders decide whether to lighten up or use this pause as a buying opportunity. For us short term traders we want to measure price against these levels, and with price hovering in the lower 25% of this range we should be on the lookout for  buy setups coming into the week so long as we don't see signs of a breakdown below the support zone of 168.75. If we start breaking down -- time to step aside and wait for price to stabilize or look for that leg lower on the short side. (more…)

the end might be near but it aint until it is

$SPY staged another impressive breakout of a basing pattern to new all time highs. Last week I wrote it was real tough to be bearish given the recent price action and that I was looking for a new all time highs later in the week.  Everything went as planned (rare occurrence) and now here we are again at all time highs. You can see we already developed a higher level base between 170 and 170.75 and we made a run for the breakout at the close on friday. Nothings changed from last week, except now we have a higher level base and levels to work against. All is good in the hood so long as price stays above 170, below there and we could see some fast money move to the sidelines. Stay long, enjoy the trend, the end might be near but it aint until it is. (more…)

technology earnings bangs

$SPY Spent the week putting in a very healthy sideways consolidation after a 4 week melt up to all time highs. Intermediate term the market remains very bullish, especially given the snap back we saw Friday after briefly making new weekly lows. Earnings season overall has been good, I do not know the exact numbers but last I read there was a favorable amount of upside surprises this quarter. We closed on Friday right into this short term resistance level at 169.10ish but a breach above there should have us back to all time highs in short order. I do expect new highs to come later this week, but for now we remain in this horizontal channel at all time highs. It is tough to be bearish here until more signs of topping action pile up. (more…)

bulls holding strong into earnings

$SPY well there's been no slow down in this bull march after a very busy earnings week. Earnings seemed to be a mixed bag. We had financials report that were mostly beats with an overall bullish tone and then on the other hand we had some disappointments in tech land that came in under the streets expectations. Bottom line, we are at all time highs in the midst of a summer earnings season and there is no overhead supply in most of these indices and sector ETFs. The story remains the same as it has the past few weeks. Stick with whats working, stick with the bullish trend, and just be aware that things can turn ugly to the downside fast BUT until they DO you cannot afford to not be in this rally. Don't let your own opinion cloud the array of bullish price action.   (more…)

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