bulls closing out the winter strong

SPYdaily$SPY it was all bulls this week as we finished higher by over 2% from last Friday’s close. In last week’s recap we talked about the indecisive action and mixed signals the market was giving and suggested it was best to stay patient until we got more convincing action one way or the other. Monday, the market led with a powerful upside candle and then followed that move up on Wednesday post the FOMC minutes as the bulls reclaimed the key 209 level that served as the breakout point in early February.The bulls have once again regained control of this market and now the next level of interest on the upside are the all time highs above 212. Also remember the $SPY went ex-dividend this past Friday making this chart appear slightly more bearish than it is. It looks like we failed to pierce and close above Wednesday’s highs but when you factor in the ex-dividend, we actually closed higher. Take a look at the cash market ($SPX) and you’ll see what I mean. Overall, the bulls deserve credit for the action this week, and I’m remaining constructive on this market until given a reason not to. 209 and the lows from Thursday are the immediate downside levels I’m watching and on the upside I’m watching 212. As far as my positioning, I have a couple of longs on into Monday.

iwmDaily$IWM new all time highs in the small cap index as we saw nothing but advancement higher every day this week. We successfully re-tested the breakout level last week at 120 and since then we’ve added another v-shaped rally to the scorecard for this bull market. This chart doesn’t need much analysis, new all time highs in a strong uptrend form a recent monster base breakout. Extended a bit near term? Perhaps, but this is some very bullish action.

tltDaily$TLT ever since the 2 bar island reversal back in the beginning of March this market continues to ramp higher and now has retraced approximately 50% of the downside move throughout February. The action here is very constructive, and now intermediate bulls in TLT have a good level to trade against using the lows under 125 as their line in the sand for long positions. Short term it’s in no-mans land here, but the ball is in the bulls’ courts to try and continue their ascent and re-test the highs from February at 138.

fbDaily$FB we saw a significant breakout in Facebook playing out this week above $81 as we’re finally seeing upside resistance taken out with some authority. We’ve been chopping around sideways for about 7 months now and we’re in the beginning stages of what could potentially be a new long term leg higher. I like Facebook here (what’s not to like?) but I missed the breakout so I’ll be watching for a little sideways action to try and get involved over the next week or two.

amznDaily$AMZN we haven’t talked about Amazon too much recently but this one gave a bit of a buy signal on Friday as it began breaking above this past week’s highs at 375. It’s been a monster ever since its earnings and for those who have been waiting for a dip or some pause in the action you have a shot here buying above 375 with a stop about 10 points lower at 365 for a trade back to the top end of this range. It isn’t exactly my kind of trade setup so I’ll be watching this 365 to 388 range develop some more before I take a shot in here. On watch.

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Evan Medeiros

Evan is the founder of the Trade Risk. With 25 years of coding experience and a B.S. in computer science, Evan brings a systematic discipline to investing in the stock market.

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