Category: Stock Market Analysis

High beta post meltdown

NOTE: The charts below are all 15-min candles.

$SPY lower highs and lower lows. As simple as that. To the bulls credit we did manage to basically recover Mondays lows and the 155.1 pivot by the end of the day but we’re clearly still in this downtrend on the 15 minute. If we can hold above 155 tomorrow it would seem we will try to carve out a little range here between 155 and 157. Time will tell, my sense is some two way action around here.

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What I am doing with the apple I bought

Continuation of ,  Why I am buying apple on Monday

So far we have a successful price reversal at our anticipated inflection point and things are looking good (knock on wood).

As I mentioned in the previous post I bought 1/3ish size on friday aftermarket at 525.24 and I added up to a full position this morning picking up more in the 517s. My average cost now comes in about 520.50.

Because I am a daytrader at heart I do have a full ‘intraday’ size and I am looking to trade around a core swing position. For those who are simply looking to swing you can use todays low as your stop and continue to trail your stop if price continues higher.

For those interested in my intraday targets I am currently looking to peel this extra size off at about the 526.5  level and continue to trade around position and below 520 I would take off half my position. Note this is a bit more difficult when I do believe the market will continue to work against us for the next few days. All the while I do have a small SPXU position I picked up late on Friday.

Why I am buying apple on Monday

Here’s why I am looking to buy AAPL on Monday.

  1. Inverted head and shoulders setup seen above on a 240 minute chart.
  2. 518 – 525 is the buy zone I am anticipating a long entry.
  3. 61.8% retracement from the 504.75 low to 555 ripper we saw this week comes in about 524.
  4. Previous swing point from early December (created left shoulder) about 518.
  5. Also  518 coincides with the previous break out area that ignited the move this past Monday
  6. Finally take a look at this chart posted by @hftalert  whose work I do subscribe too,

I actually purchased 1/3 position Friday after hours as apple continued to slide down at 525.21. I will look to make that a full position on Monday and I will be using roughly 515 as a stop.  Trading below 515 would indicate to me the lows want to get tested again.  Again this is just a trade, not a stance that I am married too, simply risk/reward and probabilities aligning here for my personal risk tolerance and trade style.