more all time highs or breakout failure?

$SPY this week gave a little something to the bulls and bears in the broad markets by pushing to new all time highs in the S&P500 but unfortunately for the bulls we ended the week giving just about all those gains back and therefore setting up the possibility for a breakout failure going into next week. We also ended the week with our second open bull gap since the reversal started back on August 27th at SPY 162.26. Also let’s not forget the SPY went ex-dividend this week so this chart is really skewed by 84 cents which means the fade here looks worse than it really was. All that said. We essentially retraced all of the FOMC gains from wednesday and we are now sitting on some support at the 170ish level coinciding with the open gap and previous August all time highs. I would suspect the bulls try and defend roughly this 169-170 level  however it seems likely there might be some continued profit taking and sell momentum coming in early next week.  The key will be monitoring how much further progress the bears can make. Can they setup and confirm a potential breakout failure closing a second week on the lows? Or will the bulls step up and buy these new all time highs aggressively. Time will tell, I still favor the bull case here especially given how many stocks are at or near all time highs.

spy30 $AAPL very impressive bounce off the monday lows which stretched the rubber band far enough to the downside combined with enough bearish sentiment to setup a near 30 point reversal  from 448 to 478 for the rest of the week.  At these levels Apple surely has its work cut out for it now that its back to the big post iphone 5s release bear gap from the 11th. More headlines are due out this weekend describing the initial demand for the new phones and this will absolutely be a catalyst for next weeks action and it should keep the volatility in this stock elevated until the market has a chance to digest the numbers. I don’t see a great deal of reasons to own apple here until further advancement is made by the bulls in regards to closing this gap or price retraces lower for a retest of Mondays lows. I am not as bearish as the majority seem to be on this name  and I think the longer it can hang out above 450 the more likely we try and fill the gap and assault the 500 level again. Below 450 and I become much less constructive. For what it is worth I think the 65 point sell off post 5s announcement was a little overdone.aapl30$GOOG one of my favorite setups to trade is breakout failures when a clear level of support or resistance is broken and the market spends some time briefly trading at those new levels but then quickly makes a push back above support or down through prior resistance. We saw that this week in Google when price broke below the 885 support level, hung out below it for a day before exploding back higher into the previous range and taking out the prior resistance level at 895. I do like this name going forward especially if it can hold above this mini rounded bottom it carved out wednesday through friday and can clear 905 highs for continued upside. I did take a position this week in Google around 895 and thats essentially where my stop is on this trade.goog30$NFLX back to all time highs this week in Netflix after it probed lower into the 300 level where buyers stepped in, protected the gap from 9-10, and pushed price back to all time highs. The profit takers and bears did enough probing below 300 on monday/tuesday to shake me out of my long position for a slight loss. I love stocks at all time highs and I will be watching this 315 level for further momentum to the upside. Netflix continues to work to the long side and even though it is getting fairly stretched on longer time frame charts I tend to believe this name still has some more momentum left in the tank for higher prices.

$AMZN speaking of all time highs, welcome back Amazon to the new all time high club. After breaking back above $300 the bulls have had a nice steady march higher taking out the prior July highs. I especially like the orderly bullish trend this past week which tells me there was some consistent bidding lifting this name all throughout the week. I love all time highs and I love this name. Amazon is another great trading vehicle to stalk dips in for long opportunities. amzn30$FB behaving beautifully technically and thats exactly what you want to see if your a bull in this name. It is doing everything that it should be doing to digest gains, shake out weak longs, and continue its march higher. There has been some serious allocation by big players into facebook over the past several months and I do not see that trend changing anytime soon. Facebook continues to be another great vehicle to trade to the long side and yet another stock at all time highs. These are the good times, embrace them while they are here. fb30 $TSLA a breakout with authority. Smashing through previous all time highs Tesla broke out of a 1 month range on thursday on heavy volume. Picture perfect technical bullish action and it looks ripe for another leg higher. It won’t surprise me to see a 200 handle on Tesla soon as there is no signs of slowing in this name. The band is stretching on higher timeframes but after a nice long consolidation that Tesla just went through it only seems likely that the band is about to stretch even further. I like this name, I bought more for my swing account this week and I will continue to hold it until I see a reason not too. tsla30

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Evan Medeiros

Evan is the founder of the Trade Risk. With 25 years of coding experience and a B.S. in computer science, Evan brings a systematic discipline to investing in the stock market.

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