I wrote in last weekends update that I was coming into the week with a short bias on the hunt for sell setups and boy how wrong I was. The market continued to grind higher proving day after day that the NFP gap was for real. begin rant: [Notice I did have an opinion on how the week might unfold but I still needed to FIND setups to confirm my thesis– I didn’t come into the week blindly selling everything because of my own beliefs. It’s fine to be wrong just don’t say wrong] /rant
I thought it was a fairly difficult trading week compared to most recently. We finally saw some back and forth action and if you stuck around too long in one direction you quickly found yourself giving all of your profits back. Some decent long trades in AMZN and NFLX offset my net losing apple trades this week to finish out with a small gain for the week. Now onto some charts!
$SPY The market continues to power higher confirming the gap up last friday was for real (so far). We’re seeing a little volatility within this 1 point range 162.5-163.5 as we ping ponged back and fourth a bit this week but all in all tremendously healthy action. Levels are on the chart and there’s no signs that anything has changed in this longer term trend. Below 162.48 and we’ll attempt to retest the gap (or put in a higher low) otherwise above 163.5 we’re back to the races. Bullish.
$AAPL lots of lines here but the story remains the same. We have been in a strong uptrend for the past 3 weeks and we just had a week of consolidation after 60+ points to the upside. On the 30 minute timeframe this remains BULLISH. The lows from Friday around 450ish should at least offer some sort of bounce to the mid/top of this range. Based on the speed and magnitude of the bounce should give us clues as to how ready apple might be to a second leg breakout above 463. On the other hand If the bounce is small or there is none at all then we look for price to fill some of these open gaps and probe lower for buyers to step in. I think for longer term traders 430 remains a critical level to hold for the stock.
$GOOG it’s a beautiful thing when I don’t need need to add a single line to a chart to help show the story. Market leader, strong as hell, holding the moving averages like a champ and closed at all time highs on Friday, this is not the right stock to be fighting right now. The only tiny bone I’ll throw to bears right now is to point out the recent candles are showing slightly more overlapping two way action instead of real clean trending action but man that is nothing to be a bear about. Sure a reversal could start at any point but I sure wouldn’t want to bet my money on it.
$NFLX nice rip on thursday back above the critical 212 level that offered strong support for a few weeks after the latest earnings gap up. Identified by the blue band this stock has strong resistance from 218-220 and breaking above that should really set this in motion to the upside again. Until then bulls will want to see netflix hold it’s gains from thursday and friday. Perhaps another retest of 212 before attempting 220 would be healthy. I remain on the bullish side.
$FB the weakest of this small basket of stocks. Ever since the pop after earnings we’ve seen sellers take back control and it seems like they’re gunning for the gap fill into the low 26s. My own beliefs are that Facebook should begin to base out roughly around these levels perhaps after filling the gap but I’ll need to see a more proper base put in before taking any shots on the long side. This is just an avoid and watch for now.
$AMZN I’ve really liked amazon in the sub 260s and my charts last week could have helped you get into this trade before or during the 260 break. I threw a set of fibs on here to show where we have come from off of the earnings breakdown and we are at an important level in fib land. The 61.8 retrace should make this 263 level even tougher to break through but I still favor this one to the long side. I think some sideways action between here and 260 is constructive. 263.5 is my trigger long for a breakout.
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