Merlin Strategy Performance for July 2020

Below is a performance summary for our Merlin trading strategy for the month of July 2020, net of transaction costs. To learn more about the strategy and to follow along in real-time with its trading signals, please visit the Merlin strategy page.

Merlin performance for July

Strategy July Year to Date
Merlin Margin +0.92% -8.01%
60/40 Benchmark +3.88% +6.38%

See Performance Disclosures: Monthly Performance.


Merlin closed trades in July

Closed Trades Return on Signal R-Multiple
CATS +34.45% +1.50
RGEN +18.47% +1.50
CUE -18.60% -1.00


Performance commentary

We saw continued gains for Merlin throughout July closing out 3 trades in CATS, RGEN, and CUE. We had some other partial sales and initial targets hit this month, but they won’t show up on our lists until they fully close out.

Merlin’s had a tough time getting over 50% exposure throughout this recovery as the growth names it wants to own just haven’t consolidated or pulled back enough to get involved. That’s starting to change at the time of writing this (first week of August) as we’ve seen a pick up in the number of stocks setting up and offering up the low risk, high probability setups Merlin looks for.

Here’s how the strategy was positioned heading into August:

Merlin Strategy Performance July 2020 - Image of strategy allocation

Final thoughts

Thin market leadership and a persistent bid in those leading stocks is what’s kept Merlin cash heavy. We’re starting to see that script change in early August and I would expect more accumulation over the next several weeks.

If you’re looking for an evidence-based strategy for swing trading individual stocks and ETFs on an end of day closing basis, check out the details behind Merlin here.

Evan Medeiros

Evan is the founder of the Trade Risk. With 25 years of coding experience and a B.S. in computer science, Evan brings a systematic discipline to investing in the stock market.

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