Trading Systems Performance for December 2021

Below is a performance summary for our trading strategies for the month of December 2021. To learn more about the strategies and to follow along in real-time with their signals, please visit the Trading Systems page.

System performance for December

Strategy December Year to Date
Merlin +2.25% +22.01%
Lamorak +4.47% +10.04%
60/40 Benchmark -0.05% +15.10%

See Performance Disclosures: Monthly Performance.

Trading system trade statistics for 2021

Closed Trades Only Merlin Lamorak
Total number of trades 188 397
Number of winners 111 224
Number of losers 77 174
Win Percentage 59.04% 56.42%
Win/Loss Ratio 1.00 0.96


We updated our trade statistics to include the entire 2021 trade history. What’s interesting to note is that on a per trade basis we saw underperformance versus long-term expected value averages (averages are often misleading in financial markets since outcomes are rarely average), however, the number of trades taken this year by each system were also far higher than average.

Said another way, each trading system didn’t make as much per trade, but they both traded much more frequently and thus generated more smaller edges than usual. Maybe this is a product of an evolving market environment with more quick violent shake-outs and resets?

Trading system commentary

2021 is in the books and what a year! The market cap weighted indices stomped higher and had a fantastic run to the upside with some of the lowest overall volatility and drawdowns for a calendar year in history! The big 5 mega cap companies were basically the only thing you needed to own this year to drive home strong performance.

Our trading systems finished the year in the green and returned a respectable +22.01% for Merlin and +10.04% for Lamorak. The index returns made things look easy this year, but if you were a stock picker or active trader this year, you know things were a lot more messy under the hood.

Let’s see what 2022 has in store for us.

If you’re looking for professional evidence-based strategies to help you trade individual stocks and ETFs, sign up for a $1 Trial today to see if Merlin and Lamorak are right for you.

Evan Medeiros

Evan is the founder of the Trade Risk. With 25 years of coding experience and a B.S. in computer science, Evan brings a systematic discipline to investing in the stock market.

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