Trading Systems Performance for January 2021

Below is a performance summary for our trading strategies for the month of January 2021. To learn more about the strategies and to follow along in real-time with their signals, please visit the Trading Systems page.

System performance for January

Strategy January Year to Date
Merlin +12.44% +12.44%
Lamorak +0.32% +0.32%
60/40 Benchmark -1.05% -1.05%

See Performance Disclosures: Monthly Performance.


Merlin closed trades in January

Closed Trades Return on Signal R-Multiple
APO 3.43% .5
IRTC 15.98% .5
QDEL 30.92% 1.5
MTH 4.11% .35
OLLI 30.71% 1.5
HUM 4.27% .5
OSTK 40.18% 1.5
VIRT 16.03% 1.52
NLS 33.34% 1.53
PETS 8.07% .48
ATVI 14.80% 1.5
W 35.55% 1.5
NIU 34.81% 1.5
DKS 17.24% 1.5
HOME 26.02% 1.5
GDS 27.58% 1.50
REGN -7.34% -1
GRUB 11.80% 1.6


Merlin varies position size based on the individual stock, so R-Multiples are important measures of account impact.


Lamorak closed trades in January

Closed Trades Return on Signal
FISV -3.20%
JPM -0.70%
ROST -1.82%
MAR -0.74%
CL -7.27%
WBA 10.32%
C -0.99%
ORCL -0.62%
PG 0.76%
ZM 9.60%
VZ 2.89%
CHKP 2.32%
XLNX 8.21%
REGN -4.09%
CTAS -1.38%
LULU 2.24%
COST -0.85%
KHC -3.69%
LOW -2.95%
CSCO 1.81%
BIIB -5.37%
FDX -3.51%
GILD 3.04%
TMO 2.07%
UPS -3.58%
SPLK -0.41%
HD 1.83%
VRSN -0.82%
CHKP 3.92%
OKTA 4.05%
SGEN 3.18%
VZ 1.31%
KO 4.68%
ALL 1.86%
DLTR -2.49%
LULU 1.86%


Lamorak equal weights position size across all trades, so no R-Multiple are necessary to compare signal profitability.


Merlin commentary

Merlin kicked off 2021 with a bang! Double-digit monthly performance returns after an already strong fourth-quarter run-up last year. Out of the 18 trades the system closed out, only one of them resulted in a loss (REGN). Why was the performance so strong? Merlin remained 70 to 85% invested the entire month in (mostly) higher beta individual stocks that diverged positively from a relatively flat S&P500.


Lamorak commentary

Not to be left in Merlin’s shadow, Lamorak saw a positive 0.32% return which makes sense, given the low volatility one-way grind higher, which is not the ideal environment for this system. As expected and per usual, Lamorak was much more active turning over the portfolio in short-term swing trades.

If you’re looking for professional evidence-based strategies to help you trade individual stocks and ETFs, visit our Trading Systems page to learn more.

Evan Medeiros

Evan is the founder of the Trade Risk. With 25 years of coding experience and a B.S. in computer science, Evan brings a systematic discipline to investing in the stock market.

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  1. Casey Jones on 12:44 pm March 9, 2022 at 12:44 pm

    Hi! I had some questions about performance and how the alerts work. Is this a good place to reach you?

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