Trading Systems Performance for January 2021

Below is a performance summary for our trading strategies for the month of January 2021. To learn more about the strategies and to follow along in real-time with their signals, please visit the Trading Systems page.

System performance for January

Strategy January Year to Date
Merlin +12.44% +12.44%
Lamorak +0.32% +0.32%
60/40 Benchmark -1.05% -1.05%

See Performance Disclosures: Monthly Performance.


Merlin closed trades in January

Closed Trades Return on Signal R-Multiple
APO 3.43% .5
IRTC 15.98% .5
QDEL 30.92% 1.5
MTH 4.11% .35
OLLI 30.71% 1.5
HUM 4.27% .5
OSTK 40.18% 1.5
VIRT 16.03% 1.52
NLS 33.34% 1.53
PETS 8.07% .48
ATVI 14.80% 1.5
W 35.55% 1.5
NIU 34.81% 1.5
DKS 17.24% 1.5
HOME 26.02% 1.5
GDS 27.58% 1.50
REGN -7.34% -1
GRUB 11.80% 1.6


Merlin varies position size based on the individual stock, so R-Multiples are important measures of account impact.


Lamorak closed trades in January

Closed Trades Return on Signal
FISV -3.20%
JPM -0.70%
ROST -1.82%
MAR -0.74%
CL -7.27%
WBA 10.32%
C -0.99%
ORCL -0.62%
PG 0.76%
ZM 9.60%
VZ 2.89%
CHKP 2.32%
XLNX 8.21%
REGN -4.09%
CTAS -1.38%
LULU 2.24%
COST -0.85%
KHC -3.69%
LOW -2.95%
CSCO 1.81%
BIIB -5.37%
FDX -3.51%
GILD 3.04%
TMO 2.07%
UPS -3.58%
SPLK -0.41%
HD 1.83%
VRSN -0.82%
CHKP 3.92%
OKTA 4.05%
SGEN 3.18%
VZ 1.31%
KO 4.68%
ALL 1.86%
DLTR -2.49%
LULU 1.86%


Lamorak equal weights position size across all trades, so no R-Multiple are necessary to compare signal profitability.


Merlin commentary

Merlin kicked off 2021 with a bang! Double-digit monthly performance returns after an already strong fourth-quarter run-up last year. Out of the 18 trades the system closed out, only one of them resulted in a loss (REGN). Why was the performance so strong? Merlin remained 70 to 85% invested the entire month in (mostly) higher beta individual stocks that diverged positively from a relatively flat S&P500.


Lamorak commentary

Not to be left in Merlin’s shadow, Lamorak saw a positive 0.32% return which makes sense, given the low volatility one-way grind higher, which is not the ideal environment for this system. As expected and per usual, Lamorak was much more active turning over the portfolio in short-term swing trades.

If you’re looking for professional evidence-based strategies to help you trade individual stocks and ETFs, visit our Trading Systems page to learn more.

Evan Medeiros

Evan is the founder of the Trade Risk. With 20+ years of coding experience and a B.S. in computer science, Evan brings a systematic discipline to investing in the stock market.

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  1. Casey Jones on 12:44 pm March 9, 2022 at 12:44 pm

    Hi! I had some questions about performance and how the alerts work. Is this a good place to reach you?

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